Private Credit Pulse - 12/13/24

Hello and welcome to Private Credit Pulse by Financial Profiles, a weekly account of the latest industry news and views to help you stay current on the buzz in this dynamic space. This week, we’re hearing a lot about expectations for the market in 2025 and beyond, including growth projections and anticipated deal activity. Below are a few of these industry highlights from the week ending December 13, 2024. 

Private Credit a Bullseye for 2025 M&A Deals

Business Insider reports that private credit firms are becoming hot acquisition targets as M&A activity ramps up. According to PwC, firms with $30 billion to $70 billion in assets under management are likely to be bought in 2025. Asset managers are eager to expand into alternative assets to diversify their offerings and boost fee revenue, driven by expectations of dropping interest rates and light-touch regulators. Private equity firms are also using acquisitions to strengthen their private credit capabilities. Cultural and operational differences pose challenges to successful integration, but the trend is clear: private markets are the new focus, and firms must either acquire or be acquired to stay competitive. 

Morningstar: Pace of Downgrades May Slow in 2025

Morningstar DBRS published its 2025 private credit rating outlook, covering recent rating actions and operating performance for the private credit sector and offering its forecast for credit ratings and trends in credit quality for the year ahead. The report highlights that while downgrades and defaults are expected to rise into 2025, the pace will be slower compared to this year. Fundamentals of higher-rated middle-market credits are improving, whereas lower-rated credits continue to face challenges. Until leveraged buyout activity picks up, corporate actions for middle-market borrowers will mostly reflect refinancings rather than mergers and acquisitions.
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Preqin’s Five Year Forecast for Private Credit

P&I highlights a new Preqin report that forecasts a trough for private credit fundraising in 2025, but expects growth to pick up in 2026, with assets under management growing at a compound annual growth rate of 9.9% from the end of 2023 to 2029, when it will reach $2.64 trillion. This is lower than the 14% growth rate seen from 2012 to 2023. The report points to significant M&A activity, including BlackRock's acquisition of HPS, and other notable deals, as indicators of continued growth. According to Preqin, competition for assets remains a top concern for private credit managers, along with deal flow and geopolitical risk.

Private Credit and Middle-Market Trends & Commentary 

Private Credit’s Record CLO Issuance Is Raising Concerns 

Private Credit Outlook: Pace of Downgrades May Slow in 2025 

PitchBook Expands Lending League Tables to Include Private Credit 

The Private Credit Firms Ripe for Acquisitions in 2025, According to PwC 

Rockefeller’s Endowment Is Selling Some Private Credit Funds 

Private credit is not just safe; it's vital to the US economy 

Investors ‘don’t see doom’ but cracks are showing in private credit 

What's on the horizon for private credit in 2025? 

Private debt investors took defensive approach in 2024 

Private credit collateralised loan obligations… an emerging trend in Europe? 

2025 BDC Outlook: Protectionist Policies to Benefit Domestic Mid- Market Companies 

Private credit forecast to reach $2.64 trillion in 2029 — Preqin 

San Francisco slates $75 million for private credit 

Investors looking to work with fewer private credit managers 

Private Credit: Alcentra's Direct Lending Struggles Are Warning Sign for Market 

The private credit boom is coming at the right time 

Private Credit Tokenization Hits $650 Million Monthly, Setting A New Benchmark 

Public and Private Credit Markets Grow Together at a Steady Pace 

LPL, industry, sanguine about some alternatives in 2025 

Competition to Pressure BDCs’ Deal Terms, Credit Performance in 2025 

Firm News, Including Thought Leadership and Marketing

Blackstone, Ares Sign $1.4 Billion Private Credit Deal for Odevo 

Apollo - Private Credit: An Enduring Opportunity in Dynamic Market Cycles 

Private Credit Should Trade at Premium, Franklin’s Johnson Says 

Guggenheim’s Walsh Sees Private Credit Doubling in Size 

BlackRock's private markets push may not be over after 2024 buyout spree 

US private credit firm Golub Capital to set up base in Abu Dhabi 

BlackRock senior managing director Mark Wiedman sells $37.85m in stock 

BlackRock COO Robert Goldstein sells over $56m in stock 

S&P Downgrades Private Credit Fund Prospect Capital to Junk 

UBS Australia  - Private credit: The Red Thread – Private Markets 

Singapore's Temasek unveils $7.5 billion private credit entity 

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